Quantifying injury to common bottlenose dolphins from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill using an age-, sex- and class-structured population model

Field studies documented increased mortality, adverse health effects, and reproductive failure in common bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus following the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill. In order to determine the appropriate type and amount of restoration needed to compensate for losses, the overall extent of injuries to dolphins had to be quantified. Simply counting dead individuals does not consider long-term impacts to populations, such as the loss of future reproductive potential from mortality of females, or the chronic health effects that continue to compromise survival long after acute effects subside. Therefore, we constructed a sex- and agestructured model of population growth and included additional class structure to represent dolphins exposed and unexposed to DWH oil. The model was applied for multiple stocks to predict injured population trajectories using estimates of post-spill survival and reproductive rates. Injured trajectories were compared to baseline trajectories that were expected had the DWH incident not occurred. Two principal measures of injury were computed: (1) lost cetacean years (LCY); the difference between baseline and injured population size, summed over the modeled time period, and (2) time to recovery; the number of years for the stock to recover to within 95% of baseline. For the dolphin stock in Barataria Bay, Louisiana, the estimated LCY was substantial: 30 347 LCY (95% CI: 11 511 to 89 746). Estimated time to recovery was 39 yr (95% CI: 24 to 80). Similar recovery timelines were predicted for stocks in the Mississippi River Delta, Mississippi Sound, Mobile Bay and the Northern Coastal Stock.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

RNA-Seq analysis of seasonal and individual variation in blood transcriptomes of healthy managed bottlenose dolphins

All globin depleted samples and associated physical or hematological parameters measured. (XLS 43 kb

Survival, density, and abundance of common bottlenose dolphins in Barataria Bay (USA) following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

To assess potential impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in April 2010, we conducted boat-based photo-identification surveys for common bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus in Barataria Bay, Louisiana, USA (~230 km2, located 167 km WNW of the spill center). Crews logged 838 h of survey effort along pre-defined routes on 10 occasions between late June 2010 and early May 2014. We applied a previously unpublished spatial version of the robust design capture-recapture model to estimate survival and density. This model used photo locations to estimate density in the absence of study area boundaries and to separate mortality from permanent emigration. To estimate abundance, we applied density estimates to saltwater (salinity > ~8 ppt) areas of the bay where telemetry data suggested that dolphins reside. Annual dolphin survival varied between 0.80 and 0.85 (95% CIs varied from 0.77 to 0.90) over 3 yr following the Deepwater Horizon spill. In 2 non-oiled bays (in Florida and North Carolina), historic survival averages approximately 0.95. From June to November 2010, abundance increased from 1300 (95% CI ± ~130) to 3100 (95% CI ± ~400), then declined and remained between ~1600 and ~2400 individuals until spring 2013. In fall 2013 and spring 2014, abundance increased again to approximately 3100 individuals. Dolphin abundance prior to the spill was unknown, but we hypothesize that some dolphins moved out of the sampled area, probably northward into marshes, prior to initiation of our surveys in late June 2010, and later immigrated back into the sampled area.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

High site-fidelity in common bottlenose dolphins despite low salinity exposure and associated indicators of compromised health

Funding for this work was provided by the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation Gulf Environmental Benefit Fund (https://www.nfwf.org/gulf-environmental-benefit-fund; contract number 57223) to CS under subcontracts to Abt Associates Inc.More than 2,000 common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) inhabit the Barataria Bay Estuarine System in Louisiana, USA, a highly productive estuary with variable salinity driven by natural and man-made processes. It was unclear whether dolphins that are long-term residents to specific areas within the basin move in response to fluctuations in salinity, which at times can decline to 0 parts per thousand in portions of the basin. In June 2017, we conducted health assessments and deployed satellite telemetry tags on dolphins in the northern portions of the Barataria Bay Estuarine System Stock area (9 females; 4 males). We analyzed their fine-scale movements relative to modeled salinity trends compared to dolphins tagged near the barrier islands (higher salinity environments) from 2011 to 2017 (37 females; 21 males). Even though we observed different movement patterns among individual dolphins, we found no evidence that tagged dolphins moved coincident with changes in salinity. One tagged dolphin spent at least 35 consecutive days, and 75 days in total, in salinity under 5 parts per thousand. Health assessments took place early in a seasonal period of decreased salinity. Nonetheless, we found an increased prevalence of skin lesions, as well as abnormalities in serum biochemical markers and urine:serum osmolality ratios for dolphins sampled in lower salinity areas. This study provides essential information on the likely behavioral responses of dolphins to changes in salinity (e.g., severe storms or from the proposed Mid-Barataria Sediment Diversion project) and on physiological markers to inform the timing and severity of impacts from low salinity exposure.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Accurate epigenetic aging in bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus), an essential step in the conservation of at-risk dolphins

Funding: This research was funded by SERDP grant RC20-C2-1097 awarded to Peter Tyack and Prescott Award NA20NMF4390132 awarded to Ashley Barratclough.Epigenetics, specifically DNA methylation, allows for the estimation of animal age from blood or remotely sampled skin. This multi-tissue epigenetic age estimation clock uses 110 longitudinal samples from 34 Navy bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus), identifying 195 cytosine-phosphate-guanine sites associated with chronological aging via cross-validation with one individual left out in each fold (R2 = 0.95). With a median absolute error of 2.5 years, this clock improves age estimation capacity in wild dolphins, helping conservation efforts and enabling a better understanding of population demographicsPublisher PDFPeer reviewe

An expert-based system to predict population survival rate from health data

This work was supported by the Office of Naval Research Marine Mammal Biology Program [grant number N00014-17-1-2868].Timely detection and understanding of causes for population decline are essential for effective wildlife management and conservation. Assessing trends in population size has been the standard approach but we propose that monitoring population health could prove more effective. We collated data from seven bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) populations in southeastern U.S. to develop the Veterinary Expert System for Outcome Prediction (VESOP), which estimates survival probability using a suite of health measures identified by experts as indices for inflammatory, metabolic, pulmonary, and neuroendocrine systems. VESOP was implemented using logistic regression within a Bayesian analysis framework, and parameters were fit using records from five of the sites that had a robust stranding network and frequent photographic identification (photo-ID) surveys to document definitive survival outcomes. We also conducted capture-mark-recapture (CMR) analyses of photo-ID data to obtain separate estimates of population survival rates for comparison with VESOP survival estimates. VESOP analyses found multiple measures of health, particularly markers of inflammation, were predictive of 1- and 2-year individual survival. The highest mortality risk one year following health assessment related to low alkaline phosphatase, with an odds ratio of 10.2 (95% CI 3.41-26.8), while 2-year mortality was most influenced by elevated globulin (9.60; 95% CI 3.88-22.4); both are markers of inflammation. The VESOP model predicted population-level survival rates that correlated with estimated survival rates from CMR analyses for the same populations (1-year Pearson's r = 0.99; p = 1.52e-05, 2-year r = 0.94; p = 0.001). While our proposed approach will not detect acute mortality threats that are largely independent of animal health, such as harmful algal blooms, it is applicable for detecting chronic health conditions that increase mortality risk. Random sampling of the population is important and advancement in remote sampling methods could facilitate more random selection of subjects, obtainment of larger sample sizes, and extension of the approach to other wildlife species.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Bartonella species detection in captive, stranded and free-ranging cetaceans

We present prevalence of Bartonella spp. for multiple cohorts of wild and captive cetaceans. One hundred and six cetaceans including 86 bottlenose dolphins (71 free-ranging, 14 captive in a facility with a dolphin experiencing debility of unknown origin, 1 stranded), 11 striped dolphins, 4 harbor porpoises, 3 Risso's dolphins, 1 dwarf sperm whale and 1 pygmy sperm whale (all stranded) were sampled. Whole blood (n = 95 live animals) and tissues (n = 15 freshly dead animals) were screened by PCR (n = 106 animals), PCR of enrichment cultures (n = 50 animals), and subcultures (n = 50 animals). Bartonella spp. were detected from 17 cetaceans, including 12 by direct extraction PCR of blood or tissues, 6 by PCR of enrichment cultures, and 4 by subculture isolation. Bartonella spp. were more commonly detected from the captive (6/14, 43%) than from free-ranging (2/71, 2.8%) bottlenose dolphins, and were commonly detected from the stranded animals (9/21, 43%; 3/11 striped dolphins, 3/4 harbor porpoises, 2/3 Risso's dolphins, 1/1 pygmy sperm whale, 0/1 dwarf sperm whale, 0/1 bottlenose dolphin). Sequencing identified a Bartonella spp. most similar to B. henselae San Antonio 2 in eight cases (4 bottlenose dolphins, 2 striped dolphins, 2 harbor porpoises), B. henselae Houston 1 in three cases (2 Risso's dolphins, 1 harbor porpoise), and untyped in six cases (4 bottlenose dolphins, 1 striped dolphin, 1 pygmy sperm whale). Although disease causation has not been established, Bartonella species were detected more commonly from cetaceans that were overtly debilitated or were cohabiting in captivity with a debilitated animal than from free-ranging animals. The detection of Bartonella spp. from cetaceans may be of pathophysiological concern

Modeling population effects of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on a long-lived species

This research was enabled partly by a grant from The Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GOMRI).The 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill exposed common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Barataria Bay, Louisiana to heavy oiling that caused increased mortality and chronic disease and impaired reproduction in surviving dolphins. We conducted photographic surveys and veterinary assessments in the decade following the spill. We assigned a prognostic score (good, fair, guarded, poor, or grave) for each dolphin to provide a single integrated indicator of overall health, and we examined temporal trends in prognostic scores. We used expert elicitation to quantify the implications of trends for the proportion of the dolphins that would recover within their lifetime. We integrated expert elicitation, along with other new information, in a population dynamics model to predict the effects of observed health trends on demography. We compared the resulting population trajectory with that predicted under baseline (no spill) conditions. Disease conditions persisted and have recently worsened in dolphins that were presumably exposed to DWH oil: 78% of those assessed in 2018 had a guarded, poor, or grave prognosis. Dolphins born after the spill were in better health. We estimated that the population declined by 45% (95% CI 14–74) relative to baseline and will take 35 years (95% CI 18–67) to recover to 95% of baseline numbers. The sum of annual differences between baseline and injured population sizes (i.e., the lost cetacean years) was 30,993 (95% CI 6607–94,148). The population is currently at a minimum point in its recovery trajectory and is vulnerable to emerging threats, including planned ecosystem restoration efforts that are likely to be detrimental to the dolphins’ survival. Our modeling framework demonstrates an approach for integrating different sources and types of data, highlights the utility of expert elicitation for indeterminable input parameters, and emphasizes the importance of considering and monitoring long-term health of long-lived species subject to environmental disasters. Article impact statement: Oil spills can have long-term consequences for the health of long-lived species; thus, effective restoration and monitoring are needed.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Comparative analysis of three brevetoxin-associated bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) mortality events in the Florida Panhandle region (USA)

In the Florida Panhandle region, bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) have been highly susceptible to large-scale unusual mortality events (UMEs) that may have been the result of exposure to blooms of the dinoflagellate Karenia brevis and its neurotoxin, brevetoxin (PbTx). Between 1999 and 2006, three bottlenose dolphin UMEs occurred in the Florida Panhandle region. The primary objective of this study was to determine if these mortality events were due to brevetoxicosis. Analysis of over 850 samples from 105 bottlenose dolphins and associated prey items were analyzed for algal toxins and have provided details on tissue distribution, pathways of trophic transfer, and spatial-temporal trends for each mortality event. In 1999/2000, 152 dolphins died following extensive K. brevis blooms and brevetoxin was detected in 52% of animals tested at concentrations up to 500 ng/g. In 2004, 105 bottlenose dolphins died in the absence of an identifiable K. brevis bloom; however, 100% of the tested animals were positive for brevetoxin at concentrations up to 29,126 ng/mL. Dolphin stomach contents frequently consisted of brevetoxin-contaminated menhaden. In addition, another potentially toxigenic algal species, Pseudo-nitzschia, was present and low levels of the neurotoxin domoic acid (DA) were detected in nearly all tested animals (89%). In 2005/2006, 90 bottlenose dolphins died that were initially coincident with high densities of K. brevis. Most (93%) of the tested animals were positive for brevetoxin at concentrations up to 2,724 ng/mL. No DA was detected in these animals despite the presence of an intense DA-producing Pseudo-nitzschia bloom. In contrast to the absence or very low levels of brevetoxins measured in live dolphins, and those stranding in the absence of a K. brevis bloom, these data, taken together with the absence of any other obvious pathology, provide strong evidence that brevetoxin was the causative agent involved in these bottlenose dolphin mortality events

Predicting the effects of polychlorinated biphenyls on cetacean populations through impacts on immunity and calf survival

This work was supported by funding from the International Whaling Commission's Pollution 2000+Program, the U.S. NOAA/NFMS Health and Stranding Response Program and the UK's Natural Environment Research Council (Grant Code SMRU 10001).The potential impact of exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) on the health and survival of cetaceans continues to be an issue for conservation and management, yet few quantitative approaches for estimating population level effects have been developed. An individual based model (IBM) for assessing effects on both calf survival and immunity was developed and tested. Three case study species (bottlenose dolphin, humpback whale and killer whale) in four populations were taken as examples and the impact of varying levels of PCB uptake on achievable population growth was assessed. The unique aspect of the model is its ability to evaluate likely effects of immunosuppression in addition to calf survival, enabling consequences of PCB exposure on immune function on all age-classes to be explored. By incorporating quantitative tissue concentration-response functions from laboratory animal model species into an IBM framework, population trajectories were generated. Model outputs included estimated concentrations of PCBs in the blubber of females by age, which were then compared to published empirical data. Achievable population growth rates were more affected by the inclusion of effects of PCBs on immunity than on calf survival, but the magnitude depended on the virulence of any subsequent encounter with a pathogen and the proportion of the population exposed. Since the starting population parameters were from historic studies, which may already be impacted by PCBs, the results should be interpreted on a relative rather than an absolute basis. The framework will assist in providing quantitative risk assessments for populations of concern.PostprintPostprintPeer reviewe